IMPACT OF GLOBAL CONFLICTS ON AGRICULTURE, MANUFACTURING AND SERVICES SECTORS IN INDIA
Keywords:
Geopolitical Conflict Spillovers, Sectoral Economic Resilience, Supply Chain Disruptions, Commodity Price Transmission, India’s Structural BuffersAbstract
This paper examines how major global conflicts — specifically the COVID-19 pandemic-driven supply chain disruption (2020–21), the Russia–Ukraine War (2022–ongoing) and the Israel–Gaza conflict (2023–ongoing) - have shaped the performance of India's three principal economic sectors: agriculture, manufacturing and services. Using secondary data sourced from the Ministry of Finance, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), the Ministry of Commerce and Industry, the World Bank and sectoral industry bodies, the study analyses indicators spanning 2019–20 to 2023–24. Key findings reveal that agriculture was most directly exposed through input cost inflation and fertiliser supply disruption; manufacturing faced energy price volatility and input cost pressures; while the services sector demonstrated the greatest resilience, led by robust IT exports and surging remittance inflows. The paper concludes that India's diversified economic structure, large domestic market and strategic geopolitical positioning have acted as important buffers, even as the country remains exposed to commodity price shocks originating in conflict zones.
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